None of this should be a surprise to campaign strategists.
The Republican party struggles to acknowledge its base. People get squeamish when you discuss voting patterns and ethnicity.
Alden Whitfeld wrote about this here in “The Party that Forgot its Base” where he wrote about Republicans’ failure to acknowledge their loyal voting bloc.
White Americans remain the only racial group that is consistently net Republican at the national level…
Much of what modern Republicans celebrate as civic virtues—constitutional reverence,4 national pride, free speech absolutism, skepticism of sweeping institutional redesign—are most strongly concentrated among white Americans.
In her excellent book The Campaign Manager: Running and Winning Local Elections, strategist Catherine Shaw divides the voter base into three categories:
- The Saints (your voter base)
- The Sinners (your opposition)
- The Savables (Independent/Swing voters)
She advises campaign managers to completely ignore the opposition. Instead, identify your base and do everything you can to get out the vote, tailor your message to the Swing voters.
The Republican failure to embrace their White voter base means they waste resources and time chasing minority groups. Right wing, patriotic Americans of a different ethnic background will vote GOP on individual issues and when it’s in their interest. And we have even suggested a Hispanic Remigration coalition (53% support mass deportations). But overall, these groups are least likely to vote Republican.
Republicans disregarded the key White voter base, or took advantage of their loyalty, and therefore failed to deliver for them legislatively when they had a trifecta.
Whitfeld also made this prediction:
Perhaps the calculation is simple: Whites will remain loyal regardless. There is no need for recognition because there is no risk of defection. And that loyalty which they have taken for granted all this time is quietly curdling into resentment.
Well, they defected. Republicans lost. Catastrophically.
They made Swing voters out of their Saints. The shift was most pronounced in young white men aged 18-44 who swung 28 points to the Democrats.
I also warned about this in my Texas tour last August. Referring to Whitfeld’s piece, here are two slides from my presentation at the True Texas Project’s state convention.
If the Republican party is to survive, they need to find their most fanatic, energetic supporters, and lean into them.
Back in Texas, Gene Wu was the minority leader in Texas house. Democrats are now the majority. Here’s what he said earlier this year:
Gene Wu:
“It’s not just Latinos. It’s not just Asians. It’s not just African Americans. It’s everybody. Right? We, our country and the forces that be, the powers that be, have spent tremendous time, effort and money to make sure that those groups are never united, that they always see each other as enemies, as competitors, without ever realizing that they share one thing in common, that their oppressors all are the same. The oppression comes from one place.”
I. E. white Americans.
All the DEI trainings and anti-racist language in the world will not save you. In the state religion of social justice, Whiteness is the original sin for which there is no redemption. How do you think people like this will treat you when they are in power and see you as the oppressor?
We don’t have to imagine that future. You can watch the future in real time on social media.
Now there are some Republican politicians who immediately recognized these failures. To his credit, Vice President JD Vance put out this commonsense response on X reflecting that a pollster he respects explained that Republicans lost because voters wanted these four things:
1. End the war
2. Focus on cost of living/inflation
3. Put America First
4. Change our relationship to Israel
Brandon Gill (R-TX) will enjoy another round in the US House for Texas District 26. He did a remarkable job this summer digging into Smithsonian Director Anthea Hartig when she suggested politeness was a sign of “white supremacy” during the summer House Oversight subcommittee hearing on “Rewriting American History.”
And no matter what the lying mass media tells you about Bo French’s campaign, the polling backs this up. Republicans of all ages believe the party needs to energize the base by running on America-first policies. Not moderating ideology to appeal to a mystery coalition.
America is at a crossroads. Be active. Republicans need to accept their young volunteers, regardless of the memes they might have shared.
Here at White Papers, we present policy proposals and draft legislation for this base. A confident party will deliver them. They need to, before it’s too late.
